The Nationals have won 8 straight games and are 12-4 in their last 16 games. Impressive right? Very. I love seeing this team win. Hell, they might be playing themselves right out of the #1 overall draft pick next year and this GED carrying future superstar, but before we start thinking about handing out tens of millions to next years 'once in a generation' talent...we have to sign this year's. (By the way, both Strasburg and Harper are represented by someone who is very good at their job and has an ego larger than every athlete he represents...combined.) Anyways, right now in DC the discussion is starting to shift to Strasburg. So far this is what we know...
-Boras is using Dice-K's 6-year $52 million contract as the reference point. This is significantly larger than Mark Prior's $10.5 million (who is this Mark Prior you speak of?)
-The Nationals have not been playing media games. Despite a report that the Nationals have not been in contact with Boras about Strasburg, which I think is false, this has been on the back burner for some weeks now.
-The Nationals will offer Strasburg a record breaking contract.
-Strasburg will not sign until the last possible second if he does.
-He won't sign...partly because of him.
Meet Aroldis Chapman. Most baseball fans have not been following the story of Chapman until this weekend when ESPN produced an Outside The Lines report on this 21-year old power lefty. He are the fast facts. He is 21-years old with an arm that is from God. He has been clocked at 102, is developing his secondary pitches (nothing like Strasburg's slider though), and he recently defected from Cuba. So, when was the last time a pitcher with the raw tools that Chapman has defected from Cuba and became a free agent at the age of 21? Never. Needless to say he is a prized possession for any team that gets him. The cost? According to ESPN anywhere from $40-$100 MILLION. Not bad for a kid who has only recently been in a car made after 1959. So why is this important?
Because, tools wise, Strasburg is better. Aroldis may throw like Kenny Powers (if you don't get that reference, and are not offended by cursing, racism, sexism, homophobia, drug use, and general unsavory behavior then click here and . If you don't click I will explain. Kenny Powers is a fictional pitcher who is the main character in Eastbound & Down, which is a show about how a promising young fireballer got caught up in fame and fell back down to earth) but Strasburg can compliment his 100+ MPH heater with a slider that actually slides and a change up that is improving. Scouts have seen Strasburg pitch every 5 days...no one has seen Chapman do that consistently. By the way, that Strasbug 100+ MPH fastball moves too. That being said, Strasburg, having been born in the US, played in the US, and having gone to college in US is forced to enter the draft. Chapman, who played in Cuba and now resides in the Netherlands, is now available as an international free agent who can sign with any team willing to bid for his services.
Just like not being able to trade draft picks, this is another part of the system that is curious. I understand that it is hard to gauge talent from all over the world and throwing everyone into such a massive draft as the MLB one is a challenge, but around 40% of the players in organized baseball in the United States are born outside of the country. Not all were international signings, but many were, and so this leads to the question at hand...What makes Chapman different from Strasburg other than he was born in Cuba and didn't play college or high school ball in America? The answer is nothing. Which is the point that Boras wants to make. Why should a group of individuals qualify for a larger pay day (at a younger age I might add. Last year's International Signing sensation Michael Ynoa was 16 when he inked a $4.25 million bonus to join the Oakland Athletics organization)? There really is not a good answer. Other sports do not behave this way. Football is primarily an American sport and their minor leagues are the NCAA, and basketball has the NCAA, but makes sure that foreigners have to enter the draft in order to compete. Hockey is the same way. Why is should baseball be different?
I will push aside the problems with the Latin American talent selection process (based on tools not game play, they are generally older than they claim to be, and of all the international signings in past few years, only 2 Latino players under age 26 played in the 2009 All-Star Game- Hanley Ramirez and Felix Hernandez). Not to mention this current system give a massive advantage to rich teams who can afford to throw stupid money at kids who may never work out...money that smaller market teams do not have. So, do we have an international draft with a slotting system? No, we should lump them all together into one draft. Since there is little organized baseball in some of these places due to monetary issues I can see why this current system may make sense, but it is hard to disagree with Boras, who I will say again, is very good at his job. Is Strasburg being screwed? No, not really, because he has a great arm and will be making millions of dollars. The problem is that there is a double standard that Boras is pointing out (one that will end up hurting his future clients possibly) but the larger issue that should come out of this is the competitive balance issue.
Competitive Balance is a topic in economics that is exclusive to sports. Sports leagues thrive on many things, one of them is unpredictability. If fans saw the same teams win year after year for decades then they would be turned off to the sport. Competitive balance can be measure by revenue, winning percentage, or any factor that contributes the well being of the league as a whole. The idea is simple. The more balanced a league is the more exciting it is to watch (generally). A reverse order draft helps improve CB by offering the best new talent to the worst teams. Revenue sharing does not as it only depresses player wages. Salary caps can help, albeit not much, but there is not silver bullet to the problem (Salary Cap's are not that great argument number 1- 2008 Detroit Lions). Of course baseball is a business, if you think it is a sport first and a business second you are simply fooling yourself. However, this competitive balance issue is real. Lets face it, the same resources New York has are not the same that Milwaukee has. At no point are these two teams playing on the same level. Remember, almost all amateur players were free agents until 1965 when the first year amateur draft was implemented (shockingly the 4 teams that tried to fight this were the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, and Cardinals).
Every year there are teams that surprise (Rangers, Rockies, and Giants are this year) and they inject life back into baseball just by hanging around (for the millionth time- If the Giants make the postseason they are going to kick the ever-living snot out of their first round opponent) but the point is that we don't care about the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, Phillies, and so on because they are not interesting. Popular, rich, and expected to contend every year? Absolutely they are. What keeps baseball alive is when the Rays go into the Bronx and provide a good old fashioned beat down of the Yanks, then go into Fenway and make the pink-hatters cry. This is why the larger issue at hand is not if Strasburg is getting his full value (he will probably get more if we look at the history of pitchers taken #1 overall) or if Chapman has an advantage (he does), it is the issue that there is a growing pool of talent from around the world that is soon only going to be available to the aforementioned perennial contenders. Yes, the amateur draft has a reverse order and there is 'slotting', but the draft can only help so much, especially if only 60% of the players who will end up being in organized baseball enter through that system (to be fair the number of foreign born players in MLB was 28% on opening day). That leaves a lot of players up for grabs...and soon they will be up for grabs for only the big guys.
In short...18 years old minimum and enter through the draft. That's the only way to even a playing field that is going to become more even since teams have started competing over 16 year olds who will have to visit Dr. Andrews is 2 years.
Oh, and to bring this all back to Strasburg. Offer him $25 Million and make him look you in the eye and decline. If a 21-year old kid can turn down $25 million face to face with a Major League GM with a contract in front of him then he is not bright or mature enough to play big league ball yet.
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